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Blackmage
Intragalactic Acquisitions Agent Mew
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Joined: 02 Feb 2004 |
 Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 1:38 am Post subject: Interesting read on the next gen consol wars |
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Shino
Fade into this fantasy, caught in the web of time
Age: 49
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Joined: 15 Sep 2002 |
| Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 9:44 am Post subject: |
Interesting theory. But it has one huge flaw.
Sony has not said that they will not have a centralized online network. Actually they have stated that there will be an online network called "Playstation Network" or "PSN." There just have not been any major details released yet. I expect them very soon since the launch of the 360 is right around the corner.
It also doesn't take into account that the PSP is the only REAL compitition that Nintendo has ever had in the handheld market. And granted, it's currently not selling as well, but it is holding it's ground. And to me, that's good enough when you are just starting out against the leader in the handheld market who has basically put everyone who has tried to enter... to shame.
However, Nintendo is not going anywhere... at least I hope not. M$ however, I'm not sure if they can keep doing this. Their Xbox division continues to post huge losses. The 360 will thrive for about a year or two then will fall far behind the PS3 and the Rev world wide.
But... that's just this gamers view on it. If it were up to me, M$ would be gone and Sega would still be making hardware. |
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Razer
4934 5157 5662 5658
Gender:
Joined: 07 Oct 2002 |
| Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 1:01 pm Post subject: |
| Shino wrote: | | If it were up to me, M$ would be gone and Sega would still be making hardware. |
Amen.
This "article/editorial/rhetoric has many flaws, the least of which is the ending which basically says "I made all this up and it might not happen at all like this...but it might!"
However,
A) MS could just as easily lose enough on the gaming division (read as 1st party) to completely destroy that arm and simply buy/acquire more professional companies (Insomniac, Treasure, even Rockstar).
B) Nintendo might be willing to experiment more with the Rev as the GBA/DS cust totally destroy the PSP.
C) Sony may just cease home support of the mulitledia functions of the PSP (leaving that solely to movie companies and 3rd parties) and focus solely on distancing the PSP from the PS2.
Any of these would also greatly impact the future tho none are that feasible. We could all say "This might happen...or not", that is pretty irresponsible journalism to me.
My take is that:
Sony will continue to dominate the home console market and make extremely small inroads into the handheld market simply because the PSP is basically a way to artificially extend the PS2's lifespan. Should Sony actually treat their handheld AS A HANDHELD (what a concept) then they may be more successful. However, the footprint Nin makes on that sector is too large to overcome unless Nin stumbles.
The XB360 will ultimately fail as any kind of competition at all. It will fly off shelves while the only "next gen" console but hit the wall when gamers realize it offers no games that compete with the PS2 in quality or the Rev in pure fun. The online package carries it as more casual non-gamers get into it but that too ultimately slows when the two markets (casual and hardcore) prove unable to reach out to each other. The prime example is the fact that table based card games (like Spades, Bridge, and Hearts) are the most played online by a tremendous margin. Each game outreaches all console games online combined. However, old ladies who play card games online do not wish to own an XBox. Also, "Everybody" bought Halo but I know maybe 10 XB owners (about half of all the XB owners I know personally) that do not have the game. Somebody's lying about the numbers.
Nintendo will survive as they "concede" the next gen race in order to release more sequels of established franchises (Mario, Metroid, Pokemon) that, while offerring nothing new besides grander scope, continue to dominate their release periods. The fact that Nin was the largest selling 1st party of the three despite having the smallest installed base is incredible but telling. I believe you can take both Sony's and Microsoft's top five selling franchises combined and not match Nin's top three. The controller will be what limits them, however, as it becomes a P.I.T.A. for 3rd parties to convert their existing games' control schemes. Most will not bother. Pelican and Interact (among others) will undoubtedly release more traditional controllers within six months of the Rev's release and that will have a major impact on it's lifespan. Remember, Nin plans on having downloadable content (older games). The (proposed) Rev controller does not look very compatible with N64 games nor the more standard controlling NES/SNES games. They will also begin offerring Gamecube games on this system within 12-15 months.
Summary
1) Sony stays #1
2) MS retains #2 in US, #3 in Japan
3) Nin holds those inverse positions.
The more things change... |
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ScrumYummy
bunnyhunches of scrums
Gender: 
Joined: 29 Jun 2005 |
| Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 3:36 pm Post subject: |
| Shino wrote: |
However, Nintendo is not going anywhere...
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Nintendo has been playing this game for over 20 years. I think they know what they're doing, and I highly doubt they'll be leaving us any time soon =)
| Shino wrote: |
If it were up to me, M$ would be gone and Sega would still be making hardware. |
I agree with you about M$. But I don't think Sega should still be making hardware. In fact, I liked it when they teamed up with Nintendo. Because Sega has shown that when it comes to hardware, it has a tendancy to get too hyper, stumble, and fall.
I wish that they would work exclusively with Nintendo. I liked playing Sega games on the Nintendo Gamecube.
| Razer wrote: |
Nintendo will survive as they "concede" the next gen race in order to release more sequels of established franchises (Mario, Metroid, Pokemon) that, while offerring nothing new besides grander scope, continue to dominate their release periods. The fact that Nin was the largest selling 1st party of the three despite having the smallest installed base is incredible but telling. I believe you can take both Sony's and Microsoft's top five selling franchises combined and not match Nin's top three. The controller will be what limits them, however, as it becomes a P.I.T.A. for 3rd parties to convert their existing games' control schemes. Most will not bother. Pelican and Interact (among others) will undoubtedly release more traditional controllers within six months of the Rev's release and that will have a major impact on it's lifespan. Remember, Nin plans on having downloadable content (older games). The (proposed) Rev controller does not look very compatible with N64 games nor the more standard controlling NES/SNES games. They will also begin offerring Gamecube games on this system within 12-15 months.
Summary
1) Sony stays #1
2) MS retains #2 in US, #3 in Japan
3) Nin holds those inverse positions.
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What everyone seems to forget about Nintendo is that they own those franchises (is that a word??), and they continue to make incredible games themselves, and spend much less time/money on third party developers because (in the past, at least) it's easier to design around their system (I don't know how the new controller is going to effect that....we shall see). So in a nutshell, Nintendo spends less money, so even if they make less money, they are still making more profit. Which is how they can afford to sell the Revolution substantially cheaper than the 360 or PS3. And as much "more power" that the latter two systems are boasting, have you ever seen a console run at (or even close to) its full power until the end of its life? Take the Super Nintendo for example; they didn't get into its real potential until the day before it died. And we're just now seeing games that push the PS2's graphics capabilities, such as Shadow of the Colossus.
Anyway, I'm a die-hard fan of Nintendo, and will continue to be, and being as the majority of die-hard gamers grew up with Nintendo, I think there are a lot of others that would agree with me. |
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Shino
Fade into this fantasy, caught in the web of time
Age: 49
Gender:
Joined: 15 Sep 2002 |
| Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 4:15 pm Post subject: |
Scrummy, I agree with you and Razer on select things.
I will always be a fan of Nintendo... even when they disappointed me with the 64, I was still into them.
I have every Nintendo system since the NES and I have no intent on stopping now. I will own a Rev.
BUT... 3rd party support is what makes or breaks a system. It's why Sony has won the past two console wars with less than superior hardware.
This time, Sony will have the most powerful hardware. But, just like the hand held market, Nintendo will have the most innovative. So now it comes down to support. Yes, Nintendo will make money, but will it have enough support to make an impact in Sony's hold on the console industry.
Either way, I will be getting a PS3 and a Rev for sure. I wait to see what happens to the 360. |
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ScrumYummy
bunnyhunches of scrums
Gender:
Joined: 29 Jun 2005 |
| Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 7:30 pm Post subject: |
| Shino wrote: | | Yes, Nintendo will make money, but will it have enough support to make an impact in Sony's hold on the console industry. |
I like what the article had to say about that....that Nintendo, instead of competing, is setting themselves apart. Maybe one day, Sony and Nintendo can co-exist, in harmony (cha, right); just as long as Microsoft gets out of the picture at some point, I'll be happy. |
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..it borked. :D |
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Shino
Fade into this fantasy, caught in the web of time
Age: 49
Gender:
Joined: 15 Sep 2002 |
| Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 10:56 pm Post subject: |
| ScrumYummy wrote: | | Shino wrote: | | Yes, Nintendo will make money, but will it have enough support to make an impact in Sony's hold on the console industry. |
I like what the article had to say about that....that Nintendo, instead of competing, is setting themselves apart. Maybe one day, Sony and Nintendo can co-exist, in harmony (cha, right); just as long as Microsoft gets out of the picture at some point, I'll be happy. |
Agreed.  |
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